Have a nice weekend

Price lower on the day

The USDCAD has moved into the red after being up modestly earlier in the day.  The price action today stalled the rally just under the 100 hour MA (sellers were leaning against the MA level). The price decline from the peak, has now moved below the 200 hour MA (green line) at 1.30993. 

The sellers are trying to take more control, with the price below both the 100 hour MA AND the 200 hour MA.

If the price can keep under those MAs (close risk for shorts being the 200 hour MA), the 100 day MA at 1.3072 and the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart down at 1.30690-72 becomes the next key targets.  

In last week's trading, those MAs were both broken on Friday, but that break failed after the better than expected employment report in the US.  On a test, I would expect buyers. 

If the price cannot keep under the MAs, the sellers turn to buyers back above the 100 hour MA.  

EUR/USD looks for a break below the 100-hour MA

The euro continues to look sluggish on the day failing to stick around 1.1400 against the dollar and has now moved to a session low of 1.1366. In doing so, price has broken below the 200-hour MA (blue line) and now threatens a break of the 100-hour MA (red line) as well.

By holding a break below those two levels, sellers will effectively shift the near-term bias from more bullish to more bearish instead. The break of the 100-hour MA is key in my view and that paves the way for a retest of the year's low at 1.1301. Barrier options still sit at 1.1300 so bids around that level will be key to watch once again.

There is minor resistance residing from last week's daily lows around 1.1361 and 1.1336 but a more bearish break in near-term bias will surely build conviction towards a retest of the low seen last week. Now, watch out for the hourly close and whether or not the 100-hour MA holds.

AUD/USD quietly climbs back above 0.7200

Buyers continue to hold near-term control in the pair and defended support level around 0.7180 as the 38.2 retracement level@ 0.7186 helped to limit downside movement since Friday. The aussie got hit by the fact that Trump's reported trade deal offer was nothing but speculation and that hurt risk as we rounded off the week.

The aussie has been trading tepidly today but is slowly climbing back up now against the dollar making its way back above 0.7200. It shows that buyers are still poised for a move higher but can they deliver?

The daily chart shows that price came close to a test of the 100-day MA (red line) on Friday before encountering some setbacks. Technically, breaking above the downwards trendline this year is a good sign but the key test remains if buyers can break above the 100-day MA and put an end to the bearish momentum/bias in the pair.

I'm all for a correction/retracement based on short positioning being squeezed, but seeing as how markets are starting to calm down again, focus may start to shift back towards the many factors that have been driving down AUD/USD this year again.

More so after the US jobs report last week which showed that annual wage growth is at its fastest pace since April 2009. That will only put more attention on the Fed as they seek to raise rates further and that will result in further monetary policy and rates divergence between the US and Australia.

Should the pair fail to sustain a move above the 100-day MA as the US midterm elections clear, I would expect the downside move to resume and a break back below the downwards trendline (now at 0.7150) will be confirmation of a move to test the lows near 0.7000 once again.

What a turnaround

Double bottom with a false breakdown. Really impressive turnaround today. We should probably wait until the close to say anything definitive but that's an impressive-looking candle.

At the moment, there's an epic battle going on at 0.7199, where it's sat for the past 15 minutes and is just chewing through orders.

USD/CAD at the lows of the day

USD/CAD hit a six-week high yesterday but it's turned around in a hurry today -- like a bunch of currencies.

The main driver is US dollar weakness and a reverse of some of yesterday's month-end flows but oil has helped it break below 1.3080. Crude is now back to flat on the day at $65.30 from a low of $64.65.

On the USD/CAD chart, you need to get down to 1.3000 to really generate any momentum but this reversal is a nice start.